Simulating likely 2026 World Cup matchups (for all matches) I’ve been using Cursor for coding for some time, but I finally gave Claude Code a try for this short side project: simulating the 2026 World Cup bracket to predict likely matchups for all matches, which is useful when considering which matches to potentially go to. Methodology: Start with the official World Cup tournament schedule (including yet-to-be played playoff matches) Blend Elo rankings with FIFA rankings (50/50) Use the Elo formulas to probabilistically predict winners (assuming no draws, even in group stage) Run one million individual simulations of the full tournament (it reaches diminishing returns around 50K, but hey, why not!) Run again with a home field advantage boost (+180 Elo) for the U.S., Canada, and Mexico based on prior World Cup outcomes Count up who participated in each match Some interesting findings (at least to me as a U.S. fan) are below, followed by a rundown for every match (in reverse order). Big Disclaimer 1 : The above is of course a gross simplification of the actual tournament. For example, it doesn’t take into account team matchup histories, game models, etc. etc. I do think, however, it is useful enough for the designed purpose of generally predicting likely match participants. Big Disclaimer 2 : I did a lot of output validation so I think the results are largely accurate (to the extent they can be given Big Disclaimer 1). However, I didn’t write or review every line of code, so it is likely there are still some bugs in there. If you think you see anything that seems off, let me know and I’ll try to track it down (and update anything if necessary). Aside on Claude code: Like many others, I found this process both productive and frustrating. It was definitely faster than I could have done it alone, but Claude kept forgetting basic context, and was way overconfident in the accuracy of the results. That is, many rounds of validation at every stage of output was absolutely necessary despite Claude saying things were good. I couldn’t t...
Summary:
• Person used AI coding tools to predict which teams will play in each 2026 World Cup match
• Ran one million simulations to help decide which games to attend
• Found AI coding helpful but required lots of checking since it made mistakes and forgot context